Field Notes Inside an Integrated Communications Agency

A few months ago I weighed in on Microsoft's bid to acquire a stagnating Yahoo. Earlier this week Microsoft, in a 'dear john' letter from Steve Ballmer to Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang, called Yahoo's bluff, pulling its offer off the table.

Mr. Yang could soon be sweating bullets.

April saw a flurry of tense negotiations, but in the end, the two tech giants could not reach an agreement. Microsoft offered as high as $33 per share; Yahoo would not drop below $37 per share.

As trading closed Monday of this week, Yahoo shareholders saw their Microsoft-induced bubble cut in half. Just prior to the January announcement of Microsoft's intentions, Yahoo shares were creaking along at around $20. After months of trading in the high -20s, shares plunged Monday afternoon to around $24.

So why was the sell-off not more pronounced? At $24, shareholders are still looking at a significant premium over pre-bid levels. I'm neither trader nor economist, but this doesn't seem right to me. Is there something I'm missing?

Rumors are abounding that Microsoft's withdrawing was a purely tactical maneuver; that there is more news to come. On a smaller scale I could see this as a possibility. But a deal of this magnitude? Doubtful.

The Google AdSense deal is still on the table. Could Yahoo shares be propped up by the Google's gravitational pull?

Yahoo is by no means circling the drain. But investors will be watching the skies closely, which could put Jerry Yang in the hot seat. I would offer as cautionary tale the downward spiral of Apple following the ousting of Steve Jobs.

Having notched a devastating defeat in the NC primary, Hillary Clinton now needs to figure out how to lose like a winner.  She might just find a mentor in our own Clay Aiken.  The carrot-topped crooner turned a second-place "American Idol" finish into a first-rate career move.  Can Hillary do the same as it becomes clear she won't be the top "Democratic Idol" come convention time? 

My advice is for her to stay in the race a little longer, but to soften her tone.  Keep Obama on his toes.  He desperately needs a sparring partner, as his sputtering performances over the last two months make plain.  But don't draw blood. 

Then, once the superdelegates begin their group march toward Obama, Hill ought to graciously withdraw and move quickly into her next incarnation -- Obama campaigner, Senate superpower and globe-trotting diplomat.  Now as for Bill (who's still the coolest Democrat alive), that's a whole other question ...  

This Presidential primary season is wearing me out. I'm tired. Both Democratic candidates are offering attractive platforms of change, but on the surface there have been very few stark differences between them...UNTIL NOW.

Insert the smoke and mirror parlor trick that is the Gas Tax Holiday.

On April 6th I bought a tank of gas for my 1998 Honda Civic HX** at $3.29 per gallon. Yesterday I purchased a tank of gas for $3.54 per gallon, almost exactly one month after the previous. I feel it. It hurts. Something must be done. Is it elitist and out of touch for me to feel that this 'holiday' being proposed by Clinton and McCain is so much hot wind blowing down Pandering Alley?

I took economics in college. Even if I had not, I would still smell a rat. Who's going to pay for this? According to Clinton, Big Oil is going to cough up the $8 billion in the form of a windfall profit tax. Never mind that there is no precedent for this tax. Never mind that this tax has not yet even been proposed, but rather is part of the bundled proposition set forth by the Clinton campaign. What if it doesn't pass? Who will pay for it? Both of those questions were rhetorical. It will not pass - it's been tried and has died before. I will pay for it. And you. In the short run, we'll simply play middle man between China and Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, 18.4 cents worth of Federal highway dollars will be getting sucked down the ol' drain for every single gallon of gas purchased during this proposed holiday. This, during an election cycle focused in part on the dire straits of our national infrastructure.

Using today's pre-Memorial Day price as a benchmark, trimming that 18.4 cents off the top - and rounding up, of course - puts the price of gas at $3.36 per gallon. Sounds dreamy, I know. Now imagine the siphon on demand that will be created by the knowledge that, once the 'holiday' is over, the prices will catapult back to an adjusted level. People will line up at the pumps to top off their tanks. Demand goes through the roof. OPEC is not going to increase production just because we decided to take a break from reality. The reality is, profit margins for Big Oil will skyrocket.

I'm hearing the argument that the anticipated household savings of $28-$30 over the course of the 3 month tax holiday is tangible to working Americans, and that anyone opposed to the plan is out of touch with the middle class struggle. I disagree. Ten dollars is a non-issue in all but the most restrictive of monthly budgets. In the case of those most restricted household budgets, blowback will in some way or another generously offset that monthly ten spot. If this is allowed to play out, we will all be out far more than $30. I have not seen anything resembling a perfect way out of this mess we've gotten ourselves into. But come on - can't we at least try to keep our feet on the ground as we try to work through it?

My thoughts to this point have been overtly, unapologetically political, so let me end on a marketing communications note. No matter how bad an idea this is...no matter how much of a gimmick you may or may not believe it to be...I believe this proposed holiday is a marketing maneuver that will deliver for Hillary Clinton, in the form of primary votes in Indiana. People are frustrated over gas prices, and regardless of the facts of the case, this marketing tactic gives the good vibe of John Q. Public reaching out and touching his government.

 

** Stay tuned for my upcoming article on the choices we make as consumers of petroleum. My 1998 Honda Civic HX is 10 years old, with 158,000+ miles. I still get 37mpg city, 41mpg highway. I'm not trying to be smug or arrogant. But seriously, what the hell? 

1. Spend more time completely out of your comfort zone.
2. Work at an odd time, one that you are not used to.
3. Set a target number of hours you will work...then work 30 more minutes.
4. At the end of the day, write down 7 things you want to do better tomorrow.
5. Think of the best thing you did last month. Do it better next month.
   
6. Ask someone you admire how they take notes.
7. Look at the sky more.
8. Suspect.
9. Imagine solving the problem behind the problem. 
10. Avoid committee thinking at all costs.