Public Opinion in Presidential Elections
I attended a fascinating lecture by CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider last night at UNC’s school of Journalism and Mass Communications. While the title of the lecture was “The Role of Media in Politics,” the discussion focused more on the role of public opinion and how the mood of the times shapes the political debate and ultimately decides who gets elected.
Schneider opened with a quote from former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. "There are only two things you must know to pursue a career in public life. You must know yourself, and you must know the times." As someone who analyzes polls for a living, Schneider identifies “knowing the times,” as the key to political punditry.
Public opinion saved Bill Clinton’s political career. When the Monica Lewinski scandal hit, the media declared Clinton finished. A poll was taken, and Clinton’s already high approval ratings went up 10%. Two-thirds of Americans believed he should not be removed from office, even though the same two-thirds agreed he lied under oath. Overnight, conventional wisdom shifted, and the media was now talking about the “comeback kid.”
When it comes to public opinion and presidential elections, Schneider coined a concept he calls the “law of missing imperatives.” It asks the question: what do the voters want that they are not getting from the incumbent? In 1968, American politics, especially the Democratic Party was in turmoil. Violence and unrest were prevalent, and the country seemed to be coming apart. So voters elected Richard Nixon, because they viewed him as a strong man who could bring order. He was also a moderate republican in the middle of the political spectrum.
In 1976 after the Watergate scandal, Americans felt lied to and betrayed by their president. Polls showed the American public wanted morality. Along came Jimmy Carter who famously stated, “I will never lie to you” and won the election. Four years later in 1980, Carter had earned a reputation for being wishy-washy and indecisive. In response, the country now yearned for a strong decisive leader, and Ronald Reagan fit the bill.
We can apply this logic to each presidential election cycle. In 1992 Americans saw George Bush Sr. as out of touch with regular everyday people. Bill Clinton, on the other hand, played saxophone on the Arsenio Hall show and specialized in empathy. His ability to connect won him the White House. Most recently, in 2004, John Kerry ran on the platform of a strong ex-military veteran, someone capable of taking on the role of commander-in-chief. According to Schneider, Kerry read the times wrong. People felt like they had a strong commander-in-chief already and weren’t looking for someone to fill that role. While this type of analysis does oversimplify things and paint very broad strokes, there is some truth to it and it illustrates the importance of public opinion.
Mr. Schneider went on to talk about this year’s crop of candidates. One of the most unique things about Barack Obama is that he is an African-American politician who does not come from the civil rights movement. His perspective isn’t one of racial grievance, as others have had, and he’s not making it a part of his campaign. Obama is also running as an outsider, someone not tied to special interests or “politics as usual” in Washington. Schneider believes that Obama is in tune with the times and is aware that people want to be united. They are tired of the rampant partisan politics perpetrated by the Bush administration and are looking specifically for someone to bring them together. (Ironically, before being elected president George W. Bush said, “I’m a uniter, not a divider,” and then spent the next eight years doing the exact opposite.) Hillary Clinton is running on her experience. She delivers, Obama inspires. That is why the race for the Democratic nomination is so close. Both options are attractive.
Mr. Schneider pointed out that while this election should be a sure thing for the Democratic Party, it is not. John McCain also offers a uniting policy. He is viewed as outside the Bush administration and has acted bi-partisan in the past. In order for the Democrats to win, they must paint a McCain presidency as if it would be Bush’s third term.
A dynamic speaker, Mr. Schneider was insightful and confident about his topic. If there was one take-away from his lecture it is that politicians must know their times and ignoring public opinion will cost them.
Schneider opened with a quote from former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. "There are only two things you must know to pursue a career in public life. You must know yourself, and you must know the times." As someone who analyzes polls for a living, Schneider identifies “knowing the times,” as the key to political punditry.
Public opinion saved Bill Clinton’s political career. When the Monica Lewinski scandal hit, the media declared Clinton finished. A poll was taken, and Clinton’s already high approval ratings went up 10%. Two-thirds of Americans believed he should not be removed from office, even though the same two-thirds agreed he lied under oath. Overnight, conventional wisdom shifted, and the media was now talking about the “comeback kid.”
When it comes to public opinion and presidential elections, Schneider coined a concept he calls the “law of missing imperatives.” It asks the question: what do the voters want that they are not getting from the incumbent? In 1968, American politics, especially the Democratic Party was in turmoil. Violence and unrest were prevalent, and the country seemed to be coming apart. So voters elected Richard Nixon, because they viewed him as a strong man who could bring order. He was also a moderate republican in the middle of the political spectrum.
In 1976 after the Watergate scandal, Americans felt lied to and betrayed by their president. Polls showed the American public wanted morality. Along came Jimmy Carter who famously stated, “I will never lie to you” and won the election. Four years later in 1980, Carter had earned a reputation for being wishy-washy and indecisive. In response, the country now yearned for a strong decisive leader, and Ronald Reagan fit the bill.
We can apply this logic to each presidential election cycle. In 1992 Americans saw George Bush Sr. as out of touch with regular everyday people. Bill Clinton, on the other hand, played saxophone on the Arsenio Hall show and specialized in empathy. His ability to connect won him the White House. Most recently, in 2004, John Kerry ran on the platform of a strong ex-military veteran, someone capable of taking on the role of commander-in-chief. According to Schneider, Kerry read the times wrong. People felt like they had a strong commander-in-chief already and weren’t looking for someone to fill that role. While this type of analysis does oversimplify things and paint very broad strokes, there is some truth to it and it illustrates the importance of public opinion.
Mr. Schneider went on to talk about this year’s crop of candidates. One of the most unique things about Barack Obama is that he is an African-American politician who does not come from the civil rights movement. His perspective isn’t one of racial grievance, as others have had, and he’s not making it a part of his campaign. Obama is also running as an outsider, someone not tied to special interests or “politics as usual” in Washington. Schneider believes that Obama is in tune with the times and is aware that people want to be united. They are tired of the rampant partisan politics perpetrated by the Bush administration and are looking specifically for someone to bring them together. (Ironically, before being elected president George W. Bush said, “I’m a uniter, not a divider,” and then spent the next eight years doing the exact opposite.) Hillary Clinton is running on her experience. She delivers, Obama inspires. That is why the race for the Democratic nomination is so close. Both options are attractive.
Mr. Schneider pointed out that while this election should be a sure thing for the Democratic Party, it is not. John McCain also offers a uniting policy. He is viewed as outside the Bush administration and has acted bi-partisan in the past. In order for the Democrats to win, they must paint a McCain presidency as if it would be Bush’s third term.
A dynamic speaker, Mr. Schneider was insightful and confident about his topic. If there was one take-away from his lecture it is that politicians must know their times and ignoring public opinion will cost them.
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